U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and controversial remarks have unexpectedly shifted Canada’s election landscape, boosting support for the Liberal Party, now poised for a potential fourth consecutive term. Liberal leader and new Prime Minister Mark Carney was initially expected to lose Monday’s election, until Trump’s economic threats and comments implying Canada should become the 51st U.S. state fueled a wave of nationalism. Former Quebec Premier Jean Charest noted that Trump had “defined the ballot question,” uniting Canadians across ideological lines.

The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, aimed to focus the election on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s declining popularity. However, Trudeau resigned, and Carney — a seasoned former central banker — took over. Trump’s rhetoric helped the Liberals rebound, even sparking record early voting.

Poilievre’s “Canada First” slogan and populist style have drawn comparisons to Trump, which may be working against him. Analysts suggest the Conservatives may need to shift closer to the center if they are to remain competitive.

Carney and Poilievre both vow to renegotiate the Canada-U.S. trade deal. But experts warn the next prime minister will face immense challenges, particularly managing escalating tensions with the U.S.

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